How to make Profits at the Big Racing Festivals
The racing year is given structure by the big festival meetings with Cheltenham and Aintree catering for the jumpers, and Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and York’s Ebor meeting providing top Flat action. With the last of the year’s big festival meets – York – just around the corner, I thought it might be useful to look at how newspaper’s tipsters have fared during the major festivals so far this year.
To keep matters simple, I’ve restricted my analysis to the big four – Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot and Goodwood – but it would be easy to extend the research to other marque meetings such as the May meetings Chester and York as well as Newmarket’s July Meeting. Using the Advance Option on this website’s naps’ and tipsters’ tables can open all sorts of data, so please do make use of this valuable resource.
The first of the year’s big festivals is, of course, Cheltenham. In a commendable effort, the Daily Star’s Patrick Weaver had three winning naps out of four, but as these were short-priced, Weaver’s 4 point profit was equalled by Spotlight of the Racing Post and bettered by the industry paper’s Ratings who, thanks to an 8/1 winner, Superb Light, ended the week with a 5 point return.
14/1 Kayf Grace gave the Racing Post’s Postdata a 12 point profit at Aintree. Postdata finished well clear of Weaver, who was again in form, providing three winning nap bets out of three (all at supporting meetings) while Racing Post Ratings and Fortunatus of the Sheffield Star also posted profits over the three days of the Aintree Meeting.
At Royal Ascot it was the turn of Marlborough of the Daily Telegraph, who had three winning naps out of five including 7/1 Ribchester. Marborough finished a point ahead of the Daily Mirror’s Newsboy, who also struck with three winning naps out of five. The Blackpool Gazette’s Simpson, Racing Post Spotlight, Patrick Weaver of the Daily Star and Postdata also finished the week with healthy profits.
At Goodwood it was Kevin Richardson’s turn to shine. The Oldham Evening Chronicle’s tipster scored with 9/1 Your’re Hired and ended the meeting up to the tune of 11.5 points. Again, the Racing Post’s Ratings and Postdata services performed strongly, while Farringdon of the Morning Star, Scout of the Daily Express, Marlborough and Spotlight also secured profits.
Interestingly, the same names crop up time after time. Combined results from all four meetings reveal that Postdata of the Racing Post is the most successful festival service with a 17.5 point overall profit. Second, with a 12.2 point yield is another Racing Post service, Ratings, while the leading daily newspaper napster is Patrick Weaver of the Daily Star with 9.8 points.
Three conclusions stand out to me – you might well draw others. Firstly, Postadata’s profit was accrued with a strike-rate of less than 25%. This supports the view that betting is a long-term project, and the inevitable losing sequences do not necessarily spell disaster. Secondly, Patrick Weaver’s overall strike-rate was a mighty 62.5%, which offers opportunities for creative staking plans. Finally, it is worth recording that the three tipsters with best overall return on all naps between the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival and the concluding leg of Goodwood, Farringdon, Fortunatus and Glendale, all tend to do extremely well at the non-festival meetings. Food for thought, I hope.
Date Published: 08/08/2016