William Hill

Scotsman's flying start to the New Year

Glendale of The Scotsman started 2019 in tremendous style, posting a 34.5pt January profit to a £1 stake. Not surprisingly, this effort clinched the opening salvo in the Napchecker Challenge. Newsboy (Daily Mirror) claimed second with an 11pt yield ahead of Rob Wright (The Times) on 8.9pt.

January profits were also earned by Racing Post Ratings, Robin Goodfellow (Daily Mail), The Scout (Express) and Kevin Walsh (Irish Post).

Nine of Glendale’s 24 naps came home first in January (37.5% strike-rate). They included 25/1 Renegade Master (Lingfield, 5 January), 8/1 Weakfield (Market Rasen, 17 January), 6/1 Dartford Warbler (Sedgefield, 27 January) and 11/2 Highland Acclaim (Lingfield, 16 January). And, apart from a five-day losing run between 8 and 14 January, the winners popped up with pleasing regularity.

Newsboy and Rob Wright both enjoyed healthy strike-rates of around one winner in three with the former just shading second place in the January listing thanks to a 10-winner haul that included 8/1 Katie Gale (Southwell, 2 January), 6/1 Ornate (Southwell, 10 January) and 5/1 Star Ascending (Wolverhampton, 21 January).

Wright, for his part, succeeded with nine of his 28 selections with Wakanda (6/1, Haydock, 19 January) and Midnight Bliss (5/1, Fontwell, 14 January) catching the eye.

Keepers Hill, a 5/1 success at Warwick on 12 January, was one of eight winning naps for Racing Post Ratings, earning a 3.9pt yield, while Robin Goodfellow, in the top two or three throughout 2018, began 2019 with a 2.2pt yield with New Year’s Day Cheltenham winner Aux Ptits Soins (5/1) the highlight.

Eleven of The Scout’s 27 naps prevailed earning the Express’s napster a 1.6pt yield, while Kevin Walsh also posted a January profit of 1.5pt.

Periodically I’ve cast an eye over napster’s records when selecting runners from a particular stable and this month first offering examines Robin Goodfellow’s impressive record when napping horses trained by Dan Skelton. Since 2 November, five such runners have received the Goodfellow stamp of approval. All five won including Mohaayed, successful in the big handicap hurdle at Ascot’s pre-Christmas Meeting. At 16/1! Total yield on this quintet is a staggering 28.1pt. In fact, backing all Skelton’s runners tipped by Robin Goodfellow during the period from 2 November to 31 January would have resulted in a handsome 18.2pt profit based on a strike-rate of 36%.

Pay attention also to any of Paul Nicholls’ representatives selected by Postdata of the Racing Post (naps and general tips). During the same period 53 tips have produced 22 winners (42% strike-rate) and an overall profit of 27pt. This includes many decent priced returns up to and including 12/1.

Finally, Templegate of The Sun appears to have been in fine form when advising horses trained by Philip Hobbs. Again, I looked at the period from 2 November to 31 January and during this time, 50 Hobbs’ runners were advised by Templegate. Fourteen won (28% strike-rate) adding up to a good-looking 24pt gain, but those winners included 33/1 Newbury winner Ecu De La Noverie; remove that success from the equation and the profit vanishes.

The lesson here is not to take the figures on face value. Scratch the surface a little to uncover the truth. If a profit is based on one big priced winner, then it’s probably not such a goldmine.

Date Published: 07/02/2019