William Hill

Tempegate increases lead in Napchecker race

July’s crazy merry-go-round of racing can often be a nightmare for tipsters, but this time it saw a number of Napsters in vibrant form. In one instance a remarkable 64.5% strike-rate was recorded, while several others averaged more than one winner in three.

Thanks to a magnificent start to the month, Rob Wright of The Times earned top position in the July Napchecker race, posting a 13.8-point yield. Second, with a profit of 11 points was Fortunatus of The Sheffield Star. The Guardian (7.0 points) claimed third position, while The Scout (Daily Express), Wise Owl (Belfast Newsletter), Farringdon (Morning Star), Spotlight (Racing Post) and Templegate (The Sun) also finished the month in credit.

Wright began July with seven winning naps in a ten-day period up to 10 July. The sequence began with 7/1 Curragh victor Band Of Outlaws and continued with 3/1 and 7/2 successes. At the close of business on 10 July, Wright’s July return on investment stood at a mouth-watering 184%. Although the strike-rate dipped during thereafter, Wright still found 8/1 Beach Bar, triumphant at Killarney on 15 July along with further 7/2 and 4/1 strikes.

Wright’s overall July strike-rate was 32.25%, but Fortunatus bettered this, boasting a 38% success rate. The longest losing run was a mere four, with 8/1 July Cup winner, US Navy Flag (Newmarket, 14 July) the best-priced of 11 winning naps.

The Guardian ended July with a flourish thanks to three successive winning naps: Big Country (100/30, Pontefract, 29 July), No Way Jose (13/8, Lingfield, 30 July) and Sir Dancealot (5/1, Goodwood, 31 July). This trio turned a potentially poor month into a profitable one, and ensured that good early work, which included the success of 11/2 nap Outofthequestion (Newbury, 12 July) would not go to waste.

The Scout enjoyed a remarkable run in July, establishing a 64.5% strike-rate which must rank as one of the highest we’ve seen. It’s worth recording the win/loss sequence in full: wwwwlwlwlwlwllwwwwlllwwwwwwlwwl. Two runs of four consecutive winners, and a six-winner sequence with only two breaks of more than one losing bet. Prices was generally short, with 3/1 Epsom winner Juneau (12 July) proving best, but it’s the sheer volume of winning naps that stand out. Betting to SP would have yielded a monthly profit of 6.3 points, but with a creative staking approach, the profits could have been much greater.

Wise Owl made an impressive start to the month, thanks to 4/1 Mujassam (Musselburgh, 4 July) and 10/1 Miss Sheridan (Haydock, 5 July). But it took a last-ditch winner – Sir Dancealot (5/1, Goodwood, 31 July - to guarantee a healthy return of 5.4 points.

Farringdon consolidated last month’s 25.50-point gain with a steady 3.5-point July yield, which was based almost entirely around one winner, 25/1 Sans Souci Bay (Chester, 13 July).

Twelve winning naps (38.7% strike-rate) helped Spotlight of The Racing Post to a 1.5-point yield, while Templegate’s modest 0.5-point profit was good enough to maintain pole position in the 2018 Napchecker table with 29.6 points. In fact, with Robin Goodfellow (Daily Mail) faltering, Templegate’s lead increased to 13 points. Wright moved up to second (16.6 points) one place ahead of Patrick Weaver (Daily Star) who remains in third. Robin Goodfellow dropped to fourth while Fortunatus jumped from ninth position to fifth.

All the figures above relate to starting price. However, as the following table shows, best odds returns can make a huge difference. The figures, I think, speak for themselves.

Tipster / Profit to SP / Profit to Best Odds / Difference

Rob Wright 13.8 / 19.6 / 42%

Fortunatus 11.0 / 18.1 / 65%

The Guardian 7.0 / 9.4 / 34%

The Scout 6.3 / 10.6 / 68%

Wise Owl 5.4 / 8.8 / 62%

Morning Star 3.5 / 5.4 / 54%

Templegate 0.5 / 6.8 / 1260%

Spotlight 1.5 / 4.2 / 180%

Date Published: 07/08/2018