Tipsters and trainers - Flat 2020
With two months racing under our belts, this is a good time to delve into the Napchecker information bank to unearth some potential nuggets relating to Newspaper tipsters and their records following particular trainers. As usual, the exercise reveals some fascinating insights into the trust some tipsters place on particular trainers. I’ve looked at the top ten Flat trainers for the current season (based on number of winners), but I strongly recommend that subscribers make use of the trainer (and jockey) facility on the advanced option section of the Napchecker website. A little research will reveal many yards that attract the attention of the newspaper pundits with profitable results.
So, without further ado, let’s begin. Firstly Mark Johnston. Despite Johnston’s prolific record, his runners rarely earn the nap distinction, but Richard Wright (The Times) shows a 6.3-point profit (and a 29% strike-rate) when selecting Johnston’s runners as general tips.
Given the calibre of his charges, it’s little surprise that John Gosden’s runners are frequently given nap status. Templegate (The Sun) and Scout (Express) both boast a 60% strike-rate with such selections. In both cases that is three from five, but with prices low, profits are small. With regard to overall tips, Captain Keen (Irish Independent) and Robin Goodfellow (Daily Mail) both have excellent records. The Mail’s tipster has the better strike-rate (43% to 37%), but its Captain Keen who has the better return to a £1 stake: 21.8 points, to Robin Goodfellow’s 6.9 points.
The Mirror’s Newsboy leads the way when advising Richard Fahey-trained runners. He has a 75% strike-rate with naps (6.1 points profit) and a 14.3-point yield with all tips (20% strike-rate).
Garry Owen of the Daily Record enjoys a 42% strike-rate when advising David O’Meara’s charges (11.0-point profit), while Scout has an 8.0-point yield (29% strike-rate) when advising runners trained by Michael Appleby. Take care, however, with Appleby’s runners that are napped. Since 1 June, the combined record of all tipsters napping his charges reads 0 from 9.
Racing Post Ratings, Templegate and Racing Post Postdata all have impressive strike-rates with Roger Varian’s runners. Small profits for Ratings and Templegate, but, a 40% strike-rate translates to a small loss for Postdata.
Postdata, Captain Keen and Garry Owen all show double-figure profits when advising Andrew Balding’s runners as general tips, while Captain John (Irish Times) has an impressive 50% success rate when following Archie Watson (13.4 points up).
And saving the best till last, Templegate is 31.6 points up when advising runners saddled by William Haggas – that’s 30 winners from just 60 qualifiers. Newsboy (22.3 points), Captain Keen (17.6 points) and Postdata (11.9 points) also make merry with runners from Haggas’ Somerville Lodge stables.
It’s always dangerous, of course, to assume that these profitable sequences will continue. Things change over the course of time, and this is why it’s worth doing the groundwork before plunging in. The joy of Napchecker is that huge amounts of data can be quickly analysed, meaning that emerging trends can be promptly acted upon.
Kevin Walsh of the Irish Post topped the July naps table with a mighty yield of 16.1 points to a £1 stake (results settled to SP). Marborough (7.9 points), The Duke of the Yorkshire Post (6.8 points) claimed second and third positions while fourth placed The Guardian (5.9 points) chipped away at Robin Goodfellow’s lead in the 2020 table. With fifth months to go, Goodfellow shows a 21.6-point profit, with The Guardian on 14.2 points.
Date Published: 06/08/2020