Wright and Harvester weather the storm
Like the weather, there was an unsettled feel to October’s naps challenge. Rob Wright of the Times eventually came out on top with a 3.3 point-yield with Farringdon second with 0.5 points, but during the month no fewer than six pundits led the table at some point.
The Duke set the early pace. But the Yorkshire Post’s pundit quickly faltered. Glendale, Fortunatus, Marlborough and Farringdon all enjoyed brief spells at the top of the summit, before Rob Wright came through to claim the month’s glory.
When the leaves start to drop, all hell can break loose, with form-lines falling apart. Never was this more true than last month. It’s fair to say all tipsters struggled with naps; not one managed a strike-rate of one in three and only five managed to top the 20% figure.
With just two winners from his first twelve selections, Rob Wright was well off the pace until the success of 4/1 Irish Nectar at York on 13 October. A sequence of four winners from seven starting 21 October took Wright to the top of the list and with nearest rival Farringdon failing to find a late winner, that was how it stayed.
Wright found eight winners for a 27% strike-rate, but prices were a little skimpy with Irish Nectar (see above) and Cluedo, a 4/1 success at Wolverhampton (9 October) sharing top billing.
Farringdon’s strike-rate was, as usual, low at 10%. But there is method in the madness as winners invariably sport decent price tags. This month’s offerings were: 7/2 Destiny Is All (Kelso, 9 October), 9/1 Gisburn (Goodwood, 15 October) and 14/1 Mayz (Windsor, 23 October). That was enough to secure a small profit, which would have been much bigger had 33/1 Cavallucio finished first rather than third at Wolverhampton on 26 October.
Marlborough, the only tipster to show a profit with naps in 2023, finished third in October with a loss of 1.6 points. Seven of the month’s eight wins came in a breathless 11-day spell between 11 and 22 October. Without that, Marlborough’s 8-point profit for 2023 would have disappeared. Except for 9/1 Gisburn (Goodwood, 15 October), prices were again slim.
Marlborough’s strike-rate of 28% was bettered by just one tipster, Fortunatus (29%), who started strongly with four decent winners in the first week. This was followed by a losing streak of nine and despite a couple of later winners, October ended with a 2-point loss.
Garry Owen’s chances were blown away by a nine-day losing run at the end of the month, while Newsboy had some good winners – Planning For Gold (5/1, Newcastle, 6 October and 11/2 Western Stars, Windsor, 9 October), but again things got tough in the second half.
For Glendale, it was the middle of the month that caused problems – a 16-day losing run, no less. This calamity followed a strong start (three wins from four) and was followed by a four win from nine finale.
For the sixth consecutive month, Harvester topped the all-tips table, this time with a profit of 14.2 points. It’s worth stressing that Harvester doesn’t post tips on a regular basis; concentrating on Irish racing and tipping offering tips two or three meetings a week is the current modus operandi. And it works. As of the end of October, Harvester’s profit for 2023 was more than 44 points.
A word also for the Star, which missed out on an October profit by just 0.7 of a point. There is an expectation for British newspaper tipsters to provide tips for every race, so to come so close is a tremendous achievement. October’s valiant effort, taking in more than 750 bets, included a return of more than 61 points on 16 October.
Date Published: 05/11/2023